Recently, in the United Kingdom, for the first time, there are pro-independence leaders in power in Northern Ireland, Ireland, Wales, and Scotland. Recently, the four above met in Cardiff, Wales, to sign a joint political memorandum, wanting constitutional change and respect for regional self-governance.
This is not legally binding in any way, however, and does not give independence to any of the nations. The agreement is more of a statement of seeking independence.
Leaders in these countries have various reasons for wanting to withdraw from the UK.
In Northern Ireland, they are seeking Irish reunification under an independent Ireland, under the Good Friday Agreement.
The Good Friday Agreement was a ceasefire agreement signed in 1998 that ended the 30 years of political violence in Northern Ireland known as “The Troubles,” a conflict between typically protestant supporters of the English crown and typically catholic supporters of pro-Irish independence.
It gave Northern Ireland self-governance, while keeping it a part of the United Kingdom.
In Wales, they are seeking wider tax and spending powers, and in Scotland, they are seeking independence because voters had opposed Brexit.
The Scottish Constitutional Secretary, Michael Russel, even said, just after the Scots rejected the Brexit deal, “and we will stick by the people of Scotland, who have opposed Brexit at every turn.”
People in these nations have sought independence for a while. Despite this, not all do agree.
In Scotland in 2014, voters rejected independence in the Independence Referendum, with 55 percent of voters choosing to remain part of the United Kingdom.
There have been changes since then. Due to Brexit, voters in Scotland have begun to show more opposition to remaining in the United Kingdom, as they wanted to remain members of the European Union.
What would this change?
While England would retain its permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council, its nuclear arsenal, and a leading role in NATO, however England’s diplomatic leverage, soft power–meaning its ability to persuade or influence other nations through attraction- and projection abroad would weaken.
The politics of England would likely shift as well. The voting blocs of Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland allow more left-leaning powers to emerge, but without these, it is likely that conservative/right-leaning powers would gain a stronger hold over England, potentially influencing key issues right now in Europe such as immigration policy.
The final likely result of this action would be Northern Ireland and Scotland rejoining the EU, as both nations have expressed interest in such a move after Brexit.
Will they actually leave?
While we cannot say anything for certain, the likelihood of Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales actually leaving the United Kingdom in the near future is low. Despite this, over the long term, there is a reasonable chance that these countries may become independent.
While I do not believe that this change would be one to come in the next 5 years, I believe that as things are moving now, independence of Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales is likely within our lifetimes.
What do other students think, though?
Ian Hutton, a freshman at Raleigh Charter, said he believes that the chances of the split of the United Kingdom are “Isn’t very high, but people in countries like Scotland might be outraged. If they separate, I don’t think it would be very easy to come back together, so I doubt they will.”
Sources:
